On the morning of June 3, Zhang Wenhong, Director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases and Director of the Department of Infectious Diseasesof Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, delivered a speech, entitled "Epidemic Diseases and Public Health Management", at a sub-forum of the 2nd Global Health Forum of Boao Forum for Asia, themed on "Public Health and Emergency Medicine".

In the process of fighting diseases, human beings are always thinking about how to eradicate the disease and why it started? In the sub-forum, Zhang Wenhong discussed the origins of infectious diseases from a perspective of emergency response.

As an infectious disease and infectious disease physician, Zhang Wenhong's research on human infectious diseases has revealed that the emergence of infectious diseases is highly consistent with the evolution of humans. Many infectious diseases originated from the animals and then gradually spread only among humans as they evolved. Others remain in the zoonotic stage. The entire natural world is continuous, and so is the entire disease spectrum. Zhang Wenhong said that each infectious disease is an exercise to human. The Covid-19 has given us a very remarkable opportunity to experiment. Without modern public health, this disease would be very similar to H1N1. Can humans cope with it? Zhang Wenhong’s answer is yes. "If we are given enough time, even without modern science, say in 100 years, we can easily cope with it, because we can build up herd immunity to withstand it."

According to Zhang Wenhong, it was modern medicine that gave us the opportunity. We will shorten the history of infectious diseases from 100 years to five years only; if we do better, maybe only two years; if follow China’s example, we can shorten it to three months. China took a very good early response. We adopt the dynamic zero-COVID policy, but it can't be done worldwide, as it's hard to do 100% quarantine. A new virus or bacteria will come from nature, and humans will fight the virus for a long time and stay alive, though many people will die. Then the virus begins to evolve, and eventually humans will survive.

Zhang Wenhong believed that we must continuously take a public health emergency response to control infectious diseases, but not a constant public health response. "If it were a constant public health response, it would be impossible to hold the meeting today. We can meet here today because there is no epidemic, but there is still in most countries. Thanks to the public health emergency response and vaccines, we are able to get together here."

What exactly is the model of the Covid-19? How should we respond? Data from Europe tell us that people who have been infected with Covid-19 are still at a risk of re-infection. But the risk of re-infection is reduced by 80% compared to those who have never been infected. This rate is very close to the protection rate of Sinopharm vaccine. The protection rate of Sinopharm vaccine is 78% and the natural infection is 80.5%. This means that in the future the Covid-19 type will be very similar to the original coronavirus, with a small peak coming in a few years. Individuals at high risk can be vaccinated before the peak comes.

Wenhong Zhang said that in the future, people across the world must work together to get vaccinated, and at the same time, accept the existence of disease, but the disease will never break out. Without the cooperation of all peoples and universal vaccination, will there be another outbreak of the Covid-19? Zhang Wenhong thought that it is unpredictable and leaves many scientific problems to be solved. We will monitor patients and keep them informed of in what direction the disease model is starting to evolve again. In short, we will definitely be able to control the outbreak of Covid-19. Its type is very clear, though not completely clear, and it needs everyone to work together!